PHOENIX (By Reid Wilson, National Journal) May 7, 2010 ― Arizona's harsh new immigration law is giving conservative Republicans locked in competitive primaries a chance to separate themselves from their more moderate rivals.

Party strategists worry, though, that the law, which was passed by a Republican-dominated Legislature and signed by a Republican governor, is a repeat of mistakes that will seriously damage an already troubled political brand. Some demographics experts warn the GOP could be in danger of surrendering its presidential hopes for a generation to come.

To be sure, Republicans appear to be headed toward big gains in Congress this fall. Polls show the party's base voters are much more enthusiastic about the midterm elections than Democratic partisans are, and talking up tough immigration controls and rules is sure to fire up conservatives even more.

But in endorsing Arizona's aggressive immigration policies, several prominent GOP strategists say, Republicans risk alienating Hispanic voters. The most ardent political backers of an enforcement-first approach ― a group that has the ear, and the support, of the conservative base ― often use inartful and ill-considered language in describing people who are in the U.S. illegally. Although the majority of decision makers in Washington, including most Democrats in Congress, say any immigration reform bill must include stronger enforcement pro ― visions, those who use vitriolic rhetoric can make the entire Republican Party appear anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic.

Immigration reform "is becoming the third rail of politics, for Republicans in particular," GOP pollster Steve Lombardo said. "It used to be Social Security, but I can make an argument now the Republican Party is better off talking about how we may need to raise the minimum retirement age; that we might get in less trouble by talking about policies like that than we do in talking about immigration reform. It's almost impossible to talk about immigration reform without sounding anti-immigrant."

Indeed, many Republicans think they've seen this script before. When Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., then chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, pursued an enforcement-only approach to immigration laws in 2006, Hispanics turned their anger against the GOP. In 2004, President George W. Bush won re-election with 44 percent of the Hispanic vote; four years later, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., attracted just 31 percent of Hispanic support and lost the presidential race to Barack Obama.

GOP House candidates won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004; four years later, they won only 29 percent, according to exit polls. That 15-point plunge was much worse than the party's 4-point drop among whites, 5-point decline among African-Americans, and 10-point fall among Asian voters.

Demographics dictate Hispanic votes are crucial to building a national political coalition. Hispanics are the fastest-growing minority segment of the population, in every region of the country.

In the past two election cycles, Democrats have gained seats in key states where the Hispanic vote is exploding ― including three seats in Arizona, two seats in New Mexico, and seats in such states as Florida, New York, and Texas. Tellingly, Democrats now control all nine districts that border Mexico.

On the other side of the issue, Democrats who denounce the Arizona law as draconian may further alienate white working-class voters who are already angry with the Democratic president and Congress over the sagging economy, health care reform, and growing federal deficits.

"Right now, Democrats are bleeding among white working-class Democrats," said former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., who headed the National Republican Congressional Committee before he retired in 2008.

"They're just bleeding. And this does not help them with that group. It just fires these voters up. I don't think opposing comprehensive immigration reform hurts Republicans. It's just the rhetoric that goes with it usually, and that's what they need to control."

Still, most Republican candidates, at the urging of top party strategists, have avoided taking a direct position on the Arizona law. Candidates running in competitive races have refused to say whether they support the law; instead, most of them describe the state's action as an understandable response to the federal government's failure to secure the border. Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a darling of the Right whose success in recent polls forced Florida Gov. Charlie Crist to abandon his Republican Senate bid and run as an independent, similarly acknowledged the anger in Arizona while expressing measured opposition to the state's move.

"From what I have read in news reports, I do have concerns about this legislation," Rubio said in a statement soon after the bill passed. "While I don't believe Arizona's policy was based on anything other than trying to get a handle on our broken borders, I think aspects of the law, especially that dealing with 'reasonable suspicion,' are going to put our law enforcement officers in an incredibly difficult position.

It could also unreasonably single out people who are here legally, including many American citizens. Throughout American history and throughout this administration," Rubio said, "we have seen when government is given an inch, it takes a mile."

But Republican candidates facing competitive primaries often steer to the right to try to score support from the most-ardent conservative activists. In Nevada, where Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid faces a difficult re-election test, all six of his potential Republican rivals voiced support for the Arizona law during a candidate forum just after the governor signed it.

If Hispanics reject the GOP, Reid will benefit perhaps more than most; Hispanics make up nearly 25 percent of the Silver State's population, and they were about 15 percent of the electorate in 2008, according to exit polls. A boost from Hispanic voters might be all he needs to inch across the finish line. And that is a trend Republicans are already seeing far too often across the country.