PHOENIX (By Ewa Kochanska, Atlanta Examiner) May 5, 2010 ― Until recently, more precisely before the Arizona immigration law made headlines, Republicans were flying high. Some polling around the country showed the Elephant Party swooping into Congress after the 2010 elections with possible majorities in both chambers, and most polls showed them with significant gains.

In the country where fiscal frugality became the most sought after quality in politicians, President Obama and his party have not been doing very well.

The best example of the change in party favorability came perhaps in January 2010 in Massachusetts, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, yet the Republican candidate won.

In times of economic distress, social issues usually don’t matter nearly as much as jobs, national debt, and financial recovery. Republicans have been certainly benefiting form this shift in priorities.

But the tide is turning, and Congressional Democrats have been picking up on it. After Arizona governor signed the immigration legislation requiring local and state law enforcement officers to demand paperwork from people if there’s a reasonable suspicion they are in the country illegally, Democrats and Hispanic communities around the country have risen up.

“I want to thank the governor of Arizona because she's awakened a sleeping giant," said labor organizer John Delgado, who attended a rally in New York where authorities estimated 6,500 gathered.

The May 1st immigration rallies drew hundreds of thousands of people to the streets, and some Democratic lawmakers joined them. The Senate Speaker, Harry Reid, who have found himself in trouble in his 2010 Senate re-election bid, made a statement that immigration reform in necessary to pass this year in U.S. Congress, after the Arizona law was enacted.

According to Rasmussen polling, 56% of Nevada voters fear the Arizona law will violate the rights of some U.S. citizens, and 54% favor an immigration policy that welcomes all immigrants except for those who pose a national security threat. It is fair to assume that Democrats will follow in Reid’s footsteps and try using the immigration issue to their advantage in the upcoming elections.

"This country doesn't seem to be anti-immigrant," said Juan Haro, 80, who was born and raised in Denver but whose family is originally from Mexico. "It seems to be anti-Mexican." And that sentiment is what might destroy Republicans’ good standing with the electorate.

Whether that’s a correct assumption or not, the reality is that the Hispanic community views the passionate opposition to legalization of undocumented immigrants as racist and anit-Hispanic. And their voting block has grown significantly in the recent years.

"One national figure that sticks out is the change in the under-20 population," said Steve Murdock, a former director of the U.S. Census and now a professor at Rice University. “Between 2000 and 2008, the number of 20-and-under non-Hispanic whites fell by 2.6 million, while Hispanics increased by 3.8 million.”

According to Lydia Camarillo, vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, a Hispanic “get-out-the-vote organization, the Arizona law is unleashing Hispanic anxieties. "You're going to see people understanding that the only way they can protect themselves is by registering and voting," said Camarillo. source

And while on some social issues like abortion and same sex-marriage Hispanics might line up with Republicans, they’re not likely to vote for them. “Hispanics do want universal health coverage and pre-kindergarten classes for their children, Camarillo noted. “The community is conservative in how it thinks, but it doesn’t vote conservative.”

The same could be said about the African-American community and they vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.

In addition, since the Arizona law is local and was enacted by the Arizona Congress and Governor, the “Hispanic Giant” might affect the local races especially. In Georgia, the gubernatorial contest is shaping up to be an exciting one, and Georgia’s population is 8% Hispanic. If the get-out-the-vote effort works, and the anti-illegal immigration rhetoric continues, Georgia might see a Democratic Governor in 2011.

With both black and Hispanic ethnic groups rapidly growing and so decidedly against Republicans, the party’s future might be in question. And in the light of the growing interest in immigration reform, November 2010 might end up being a huge disappointment for the Elephant after all.