But it also has a strong, organized
opposition, also spread among Democrats
and Republicans. A Gallup poll last
August, headlined, "Americans Return to
Tougher Immigration Stance," found the
public "less favorable toward
immigration than they were a year ago."
Gallup found that 50 percent of those
polled believed immigration should be
decreased up from 39 percent the
previous year while 32 percent said
immigration levels should stay the same
and just 14 percent said they should be
increased. Gallup found Republicans
"have shifted most strongly toward
decreasing immigration," but the
pollster also found "Democrats and
independents moving in the same
direction, but to a lesser degree."
Gallup concluded lawmakers considering
immigration reform "should do so mindful
Americans of all political persuasions
are generally more resistant to
immigration in broad measure than they
were a year ago."
That's the public as a whole. Among
Hispanic voters, it's a different story.
Last November, a University of New
Mexico poll of 1,400 Hispanic registered
voters nationwide found 62 percent said
it was "extremely" or "very" important
Congress and the president pass an
immigration reform bill before the 2010
congressional elections. Among those
polled, the president's approval rating
was 74 percent.
Is Obama going to ignore their concerns
this year? If Obama breaks the one major
promise he made to Hispanic voters to
deliver comprehensive immigration reform
this will make it tough for him to
face the Hispanic community as he
campaigns for re-election.
And Democrats
can't afford a sizable bloc of voters
becoming so disillusioned with Obama's
version of 'hope and change' that they
don't turn out to help re-elect him.
That's Obama's problem. Can he keep a
campaign promise that is dear to an
important constituency but unpopular
with the public as a whole at a time
when Democrats are terrified of further
alienating voters already turned off by
the Democratic agenda so far? Chances
are, Obama will mention immigration in
the State of the Union speech, just so
he can say it's one of his priorities,
and then sit back as Congress runs away
from it.
That's why spokesman Gibbs
weaseled his way through the reform
question "if we've started a process
on this and if Congress can put together
the way forward, a coalition to get the
way forward, then it's something we'll
work through."
