Since
the
crisis
began,
the
government
has
responded
in a
classic
Keynesian
fashion.
It
passed
three
tax cuts
(one
under
George
W. Bush
and two
under
Barack
Obama),
set in
motion
automatic
stabilizers
such as
unemployment
insurance,
sent
money to
state
governments
to keep
their
workers
employed,
and
spent on
infrastructure
and
other
projects.
Above
all, the
Federal
Reserve
printed
money to
make it
easier
for
consumers
and
businesses
to get
their
hands on
cash and
thus
spend
it.
But
businesses
and
consumers
are not
spending.
It is
not that
the
stimulus
did not
work.
The
federal
government
seems to
have
spent
the
money
reasonably
well,
with
pork and
corruption
kept to
low
levels.
The
problem
is this
kind of
spending
is meant
to be a
bridge
to get
the
private
sector
spending
again.
The
theory
is the
government
would
create
demand
while
the
private
sector
cleaned
up its
balance
sheets.
But
corporate
America
is flush
with
profits
- yet is
not
spending.
Why
are
consumers
and
businesses
not
spending?
Everyone
is
haunted
by the
crisis
of 2008.
Consumers
are
paying
down
debts,
preserving
cash,
hoping
they
keep
their
jobs and
their
houses
stop
sinking
in
value.
Businesses,
having
come
from a
near-death
experience,
are
being
conservative
in an
atmosphere
of
uncertainty.
With
little
fresh
demand
in sight
in the
United
States,
why
would
they
hire
workers
or build
factories?
And if
they do
invest,
they
will do
so in
emerging
markets,
where
consumer
spending
is
growing
by
double
digits
and
nearly
50
percent
of the
S&P
500's
profits
come
from
anyway.
Unfortunately,
the
government's
efforts
to
resolve
the
crisis
amount
to
giving
the
country
the hair
of the
dog that
bit it.
Washington
is
asking
consumers
to stop
saving
and
start
spending,
while
the
government
issues
more
debt and
the Fed
lowers
rates -
all
measures
designed
to
increase
debt. In
other
words,
we are
fighting
a crisis
caused
by
excessive
debt by
encouraging
excessive
debt. Is
that
really
the best
way to
get
growth?
The
investment
manager
and guru
Jeremy
Grantham
says no.
In his
latest
quarterly
letter,
he
points
out that
over the
last
generation,
American
government
has
created
conditions
that
encouraged
everyone
to keep
accumulating
debt.
But far
from
getting
a bang,
the
country's
growth
rate
actually
slowed
down
over
that
period.
In fact,
the
effect
of all
this
government-subsidized
debt has
been
deeply
destructive.
It
created
asset
bubbles
in
stocks,
bonds,
commodities
and
more.
One
stunning
chart in
his
letter
underscores
the
extent
to which
the Fed
created
what he
calls
"the
first
housing
bubble
in
history,"
meaning
the
first
time
that
U.S.
house
prices
rose
dramatically
across
the
board -
and are
now
falling
just as
dramatically.
Debt-fueled
growth
"is, in
an
important
sense,
not the
real
world,"
Grantham
writes.
"In the
real
world,
growth
depends
on real
factors:
the
quality
and
quantity
of
education,
work
ethic,
population
profile,
the
quality
and
quantity
of
existing
plant
and
equipment,
business
organization,
the
quality
of
public
leadership
especially
from the
Fed in
the
U.S.,
and the
quality
not
quantity
of
existing
regulations
and the
degree
of
enforcement."
This
strikes
me as
the
common-sense
view of
economics.
We can
push and
pull
fiscal
and
monetary
policy
all we
want,
but
long-term
growth
depends
on these
broader
and
deeper
factors.
Ironically,
one
policymaker
who
seemed
to
understand
this was
Barack
Obama.
Twelve
weeks
into his
presidency
he gave
a speech
at
Georgetown
University
making
the case
for the
long-term
rebuilding
of the
American
economy,
away
from an
overreliance
on debt
and
consumption
and
toward
productive
investment.
Obama
should
have
given 25
versions
of that
speech
by now
and
relentlessly
offered
policies
that
expand
on its
basic
focus on
long-term
growth.
The
public
would
trust in
this
approach
far more
than in
the
magic of
the Fed
printing
money -
and in
this
regard,
the
public
would be
right.